Military Expert Stavros Atlamazoglou Explains the Latest Happenings in the War in Ukraine. His Analysis is Simple – Russia is in Deep Trouble: Despite almost months of what seems like a neverending war, the Russian campaign in Ukraine has largely stalled. On day 178 day of the Russian invasion, the Russian forces are trying to deal with the imminent Ukrainian counteroffensive.
A man jumps from a Russian T-72 tank destroyed during Russia’s invasion, in the village of Yahidne, Ukraine April 20, 2022. REUTERS/Vladyslav Musiienko
The Russian Campaign in Ukraine
The Russian campaign in Ukraine is advancing at a snail pace. For months, the Kremlin had dedicated most of its combat power to the Donbas in an attempt to break the Ukrainian defenses and capture the Luhansk and Donetsk provinces that make up the Donbas.
“The last week has seen only minimal changes in territorial control along the front line. In the Donbas, after small advances from early August, Russian forces have approached the outskirts of the town of Bakhmut, but have not yet broken into the built-up area,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its daily estimate of the war.
However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south in the direction of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia threw off the Russian plans and forced the Russian commanders to relocate forces and weapon systems to the south, something that has hamstrung the campaign in the Donbas.
The Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, continue to set the conditions for an advance toward Kherson. Using the long-range precision fires of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), the Ukrainian forces have been targeting and taking out Russian ammunition dumps, fuel depots, command and control hubs, and lines of communications and supply.
“Russia has not made any major efforts to advance in the Zaporizhzhia or Kharkiv sectors. In the southwest, neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces have made advances on the Kherson front line. However, increasingly frequent explosions behind Russian lines are probably stressing Russian logistics and air basing in the south,” the British Ministry of Defense stated.
“It is unlikely that the situation will significantly change in the next week. Russian forces are, for now, probably only prepared to undertake limited local assaults, rarely involving more than a company of troops. However, over the coming months the initiative will go to whichever side manages to generate a credible, committed force for offensive operations,” the British Ministry of Defense assessed.
The Russian Casualties
Russian tank firing main gun. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Saturday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 44,900 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 234 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 197 attack and transport helicopters, 1,907 tanks, 1,018 artillery pieces, 4,212 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 266 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 15 boats and cutters, 3,137 vehicles and fuel tanks, 141 anti-aircraft batteries, 803 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 97 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 190 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.